Concerns about a possible revival of the EI following the recent attacks

Recent events in several countries have reignited fears of a resurgence of the Islamic State, the terrorist organisation that once dominated large parts of Iraq and Syria.

Despite significant territorial and leadership losses in recent years, the organisation continues to inspire violence around the world. Analysts and policymakers are concerned about the evolution of the group’s strategy and its potential to destabilise regions far beyond its original strongholds.

EI-inspired attacks in the West

In recent months, the West has witnessed a series of attacks that bear the hallmark of EI’s ideological influence. In the United States, a particularly alarming case was that of a US army veteran who hoisted an EI flag on his truck before driving into a crowd of New Year’s Eve revellers in New Orleans.

The attack killed 14 people. The two youngest were 18, the oldest 63. But most of the 14 victims killed on New Year’s Eve were under the age of 30.

This act underlines the extent to which the group’s propaganda still has the power to radicalise individuals, even years after its territorial defeat.

In Germany, similar concerns have been raised about sporadic acts of violence linked to individuals inspired by the EI. European countries have a long history of combating home-grown terrorism, which remains a persistent threat despite increased surveillance and counter-terrorism measures.

After the departure of Bashar al-Assad. Western countries must observe the situation in Syria with caution. There is growing concern about the possible return of jihadists to carry out attacks there.
Deadly attacks in Russia and Iran

The impact of the EI is not limited to the West. In March 2024, gunmen targeted a Russian music hall, killing at least 143 people.

This tragic event highlighted the group’s ability to orchestrate or inspire attacks in countries with strong counter-terrorism frameworks.

Despite the Kremlin’s propensity to associate the attackers with Ukraine and not EI, the group’s involvement in the attack is clear from its statements and the evidence that emerged after the attack.

Similarly, in January 2024, two explosions at an official ceremony in the Iranian city of Kerman killed nearly 100 people.

These incidents demonstrate the EI’s ability to strike in regions with different political and security dynamics, highlighting its adaptability and resilience.

The rise and fall of the Caliphate

At the height of its power, between 2014 and 2017, the EI established a self-proclaimed ‘caliphate’ that extended over vast areas of Iraq and Syria.

Under the leadership of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who proclaimed himself Caliph of all Muslims, the group imposed a brutal regime marked by executions, torture and systemic oppression.

Baghdadi’s death in 2019 in a US Special Forces raid in north-west Syria dealt a symbolic blow to the group, but did little to erase its influence.

The collapse of the caliphate, first in Iraq in 2017 and then in Syria in 2019, was the result of a prolonged military campaign led by a US-led coalition. Thousands of EI fighters were killed or captured, and the group’s territorial ambitions were dismantled.

However, the EI’s response to these losses has been to decentralise its operations, dispersing into autonomous cells that continue to pose a threat.

The continuing threat

According to United Nations estimates, the EI has around 10,000 fighters in its strongholds in Iraq and Syria. While the group’s leaders operate in secrecy, its decentralised structure makes total eradication difficult. Autonomous cells carry out attacks independently, often inspired by the group’s propaganda rather than direct orders from a central command. This decentralised model has enabled the EI to remain relevant despite the loss of its territorial base.

The group has also successfully exploited digital platforms to spread its message and recruit new followers. Online propaganda and encrypted communication channels allow it to reach a global audience, circumventing traditional counter-terrorism measures. This adaptability underlines the challenge of fighting an organisation that has evolved beyond the conventional definitions of a terrorist group.

Global consequences

The recent attacks underline the need for international cooperation to tackle the continuing threat posed by the EI. While military campaigns have been effective in dismantling its territorial stronghold, a comprehensive strategy that includes counter-radicalisation efforts, intelligence sharing and community engagement is essential.

The resurgence of EI-inspired violence is also a reminder that the fight against terrorism is far from over. Governments and societies must remain vigilant to prevent the group from exploiting vulnerabilities and spreading its extremist ideology.

The lessons of the past decade underline the importance of tackling the root causes of radicalisation while maintaining a robust security apparatus.

Source: eubriefs.com